This Week In NFL Math

• Posted by Adam Warner
• on November 23rd, 2009

So last night late in the game the Eagles are milking the clock up by 4. There’s a little over 2 minutes left and they face 3rd and 4 from their own 35 or so. Imagine if they gain 3 yards and face 4th and 1, it would be deja-Belichik all over again! Do you gamble and try to ice the game on 1 play? After all, it’s almost an identical statistical decision to last week.

The answer is of course, one big NOOOOOOOO!

I know I made the pro-stats argument in defending Belichek, but this is a perfect example of why it pays to consider Win probability analysis et. al., in making the decision, but at the end of the day you need some feel for the actual situation in front of you. It was reasonable for Belichek to worry that if he punted the ball to the Colts, that there was a good chance they’d roll down the field and score the winning TD. I know some of you feel strongly otherwise and that’s fine. The point is that it’s a valid point to debate, the basic pundit position didn’t even give it that much credit.

By the same token, last night it looked more likely Devin Hester would make his audition for New Moon than it was for Jay Cutler to get any sort of late drive going from 70 yards away, 2 minutes, and no timeouts, so would not have made any sense to get aggressive there. And it became moot as the Eagles were at 4th and 4 and punted.

 

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