And Then There Was One
- Posted by Adam Warner
- on December 14th, 2009

I still can’t explain why you would take a cell phone call in this situation. It’s about as logical as running this picture when you are not mentioning Home Depot.
Anyway, Best Buy reports tomorrow. If you’re looking to an options board for clues this close to expiration, you really need to forget the near-month volatility reading. It’s just a dollar amount at this point.
Take BBY. Dec. options trade with a 60 full about double where they’d be without earnings on. So expectations of a big move? Not really, it’s a bit misleading. With the stock at $45, the Dec. 45 straddle is trading at about $2.60. It’s not going to go to zero if BBY doesn’t budge, but it’s probably going to $1 or under. So that’s about all we’re talking about here.
Another way to look at it is thru the JAn. options. They carry a high 30′s volatiltiy and will likely go down to about 30 vol. That translates to maybe a 5% move, really not much considering there is some real interest in seeing what BBY says about the holiday season.
The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.
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Adam Warner is the author of Options Volatility Trading: Strategies for Profiting from Market Swings, released in October 2009 from McGraw Hill. (More)
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