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Doug Kass on Fast Money last night, I’ll let CNBC roll with the intro.

Doug Kass of Seabreeze is among the growing number of strategists that thinks there’s much more to lose on the downside than there is to gain on the upside.

Of course Kass is known for being a bear, but he’s also known for being accurate. He called the subprime crisis as well as the bottom in March of last year.

And he says amid these first few days of earnings season, the storm clouds are gathering.

Although Kass admits stocks could go higher in the near-term, he feels confident that a correction is on the horizon, largely because bullish investors are all but blind to the negative catalysts in this market.

And look at the crawl on the video. “The man who called the bottom now calls for a correction”. I don’t catch much CNBC these days, but it’s always good to get a reminder why.

Kass is known for being a Bear because CNBC dumbs everyone down into a carricature. He’s a hedgie/Professional Pundit who generally takes on the role of “Bear” in their endless and pointless series of Bull/Bear debates. The vast swath of us not paid to run a long only or short only fund and are neither Bulls or Bears (capital letter emphasized). We get bullish, we get bearish, but we’re not perma-anything. Go “perma” and you won’t be in the business very long. Bear Kass is better described as Doug Kass, who is currently bearish.

Speaking of which, Kass is bearish for quite some time now, though you wouldn’t know it since all we’re told on the TV intro, and in the next graf above,  is that he called the subprime crisis and the March bottom. Did he call the subprime crisis in October 2007? June of 2004? Was he bullish in January of 2009 too? How about November 2008? I honestly don’t know the answer, I’ll just take it as gospel that his only bull call was near the bottom because that’s what I’m lead to believe about everybody CNBC trots on; they got bullish then and there. In the real world where we make constant trading and investment decisions, very early is also known as “wrong”.

And finally, this clip ends with my all-time favorite, the bullish in 1 time frame and bearish in another time frame call. Doug Kass is as sharp as they get. In real money managing life, I don’t doubt that he indeed separate his macro opinion from his nearer term positioning. In fact he’ll often note trades to that effect. Look, I’m sure I do the same thing, I would agree on a macro level that the economy is alot of smoke and mirrors. But CNBC’s not looking for him, or anyone, to manage money well, they’re looking for simple macro market calls that are fuzzy enough that they can’t point to as being right the next time they’re on. In this case, if he’s back in a month and the market’s higher, then his near-term call has played out and it’s rinse and repeat. If we’re lower, then he’s right on his “storm clouds”.

My problem is completely NOT with Doug Kass. I only know his views because I follow him on Twitter and I read his work on the Street. He’s playing the game as they’ve created it. My problem is with the whole game to begin with.


The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

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