Finally, a VIX Rally!

zztop Finally, a VIX Rally!

I vowed not to shave until the VIX closed green, but it got a bit out of hand as you can see. So come on VIX, you’re up 30 cent, hold on for 2 more hours!

But is there greater meaning?

Nah, I doubt it. You really can’t argue with taking a stock winner and converting it to a long call so as to avoid giving back too much. That is, if you still want to catch some potential up side. You also can’t argue with buying cheap puts for any reason.

We also have that futures premium that persists. April has a 3.5 point premium to “cash” VIX which means the Mr. Market expects the VIX to rally over the next 6 weeks or so. Before you read much into it, just remember this is almost always how a future with about a month and half to go will behave. Especially so when the VIX is at the low end of a range. It’s just mean reversion, and the perception that the real “mean” for the VIX is higher than here, If we fast forward a month and the VIX is 17, the May VIX future will probably be about 21 and I’ll be making the same exact point. Which is that these futures are not all that predictive of anything other than that the last move in the VIX will reverse.

 


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