Danica Top?

• Posted by Adam Warner
• on March 5th, 2010

Amazing how time flies! I penned the following exactly 1 year ago today.

I make fun of all these “bottom” and “bottoming process” calls, but then it occurred to me. My book comes out in 6 month’s or so and I’m going to have to plug my expertise like crazy. And what better way than to call a bottom accurately.

And what better way to call it accurately than to call it every day. Starting today.

So here it is.

We have hit my long standing target levels based on the Price to Danica Tattoo ratio.

And as luck would have hit, we really did bottom a few days later. I was obviously kidding, and admitted as such, but I do remember noticing the SPY stretched incredibly far below the 200 Day. And also remember thinking that we had looked oversold for so long, why was this exact moment in time the perfect one? Not like I backed up the truck there, best I can say was I also didn’t back up the truck 50% higher either like the parade of pundit geniuses they had on at the time. Hindsight’s truly 20/20.

The obvious question is whether we’re at the mirror image moment now. And truthfully, there’s no reason to say this is THE time to get real bearish. I’m legging some long SPY puts vs. shorting VIX calls, but that’s more a play on the spread between VIX April futures and the VIX itself. It’s not a locked arb in any way, shape or form, will explain my thinking next week.

The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

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