OK, we're never going to fix the NHL. They're not shrinking the league or the season or ticket prices any time soon.
Plus it's getting nice out, time to fix MLB. Tom Verducci of SI relays some ideas in the "bandied about" stage.
When baseball commissioner Bud Selig named a 14-person "special committee for on-field matters" four months ago, he promised that all topics would be in play and "there are no sacred cows." The committee already has made good on Selig's promise by discussing a radical...
It's a Very VIX World as we all know, but it's far from the only volatility index out there. Among others we have RVX, a proxy for Russell options. Can we learn much comparing Russell vo; to the Good Ole VIX? Steve Place has this to say.
One relationship I’ve been watching was the relationship of smallcaps and the S&P. The rule of thumb is that when smallcaps are outperforming, that means there is an appetite for risk and beta-chasing in the market, and upside momentum should follow. However,...
Saw a couple interesting looks at ratios involving the VIX recently, one I agree with and one, well, no as much. Let's start with the latter.
Ashraf Laidi takes a look at the SPX/VIX ratio, and has this.
Exactly fifty two weeks after the S&P500 hit its 12-year lows at 666, the index rose 68%, driving down the VIX near January's 19-month lows. Much analysis has been done on equity indices and the VIX on the S&P index options. But the relationship between the two merits...
Life's A Journey, and the ride is more enjoyable when you don't have those pesky lawyers to deal with. Lenny wants out (of bankrupcy)!
Former baseball star Lenny Dykstra, who filed for Chapter 11 protection last July, now wants a bankruptcy judge to dismiss his case, claiming he doesn’t belong in bankruptcy.
“Bottom line, you don’t belong in bankruptcy when you have $100 million in assets,” Dykstra said Tuesday in a telephone interview.
And who can argue with that logic? Well, one pesky...
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF $100.63 last) traded lower after a Credit Suisse conference in London was somewhat muted. Traders looked to the options market to hedge some longs as the March puts were active. The March 85/90 put spread was purchased 4500x for a $0.48 premium. Puts outpaced calls as 25,000 traded vs. 13,000 calls.
OSI Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (OSIP $57 last) gained ground after a story that the bid may rise as Astellas Pharma...
Well, one important thing that TV never tells you about volatility is that it can happen on the upside too. Especially in violent breaks to the upside. Volatility is about uncertainty, and when a stock hits new highs, or even just breaks above a comfortable range, you can see some options chasing.
BIDU however will have none of this options squeeze I speak of. The stock itself makes new highs every 3 minutes, but the high price tag hides the fact that it's quite the orderly run up. Options at...
If you charted Vampire Weekend, I think it would look like BIDU. Especially on the PnF, not sure I've seen quite that many X'x in a row.
But hey, I think both met their price objectives. Shorting some BIDU call spreads, not sure how to play the other other than not hunting them down from SNL.
And that VIX? Unless we get a market dip, it looks like that streak of positive closes will end at 1. And you can make a strong case that the 1 lift yesterday was merely the standard Monday...
Pride International (PDE, Buy, $29.72, $40 PT, Matt Conlan, 2010 Focus List Member) trades at a 26% discount to our $40 per share liquidation value and is also our top takeover candidate among the offshore drillers. As a result, we expect the stock to move higher because of either an event or steady appreciation of the undervalued shares. Upside directional exposure can be attained via July 32.5/37.5 call spreads offered at $1.25 to make a maximum of...
On March 5, 2009, as we neared the end of a simply awful stretch of market action, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) hit a low of 46.98 and a high of 51.95, before closing at 50.17.
Staring at a VIX of around 17 on the screen now, it may be hard to remember this, but 50 in the VIX was actually well off the highs. The VIX hit 80 in October 2008, and then again in November 2008.
That's not to say you ever had the chance to "sell" the VIX at those...
Just to put the 17 VIX into perspective, remember you can convert the action in a given day's SPX or SPY and convert it to a historical volatility.
It's very simple. Take the range of the day. For these purposes, I'd define that as the greater of the hi/lo split or the high(low) minus (plus) yesterday's close. For today in SPY, that's 45 cents right now (114.52-114.07). Then, turn that into percentage move. Today, that's .393%. Finally, multiply that by 15.87 to convert it to volatility...
So, love getting confused by VIX futures? Well, you're in luck. Someday soon, you'll be able to get perplexed Volatility Futures in a host of products, thanks to the CME. (hat tip Abnormal)
CME Group, the world's leading and most diverse derivatives marketplace, today announced it has entered into a seven-year license agreement with the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) that will allow CME Group to list futures and options on futures for volatility indexes on a variety of asset classes....
So I mentioned the other day I'm buying April puts in SPY vs. shorting April VIX calls.
My thinking is pretty simple. There's a rather large spread between the VIX itself and the April VIX futures. It's about 4-4.50 points. By definition, that spread will go to zero when the VIX setles in April. Unfortunately, there's no perfect arb spread to lock it in. So a better way to look at this is as two separate transactions that will have some correlation, but far from a perfect one.
OK first, credit where due. I downloaded the CNBC Real Time Ap. It's truly excellent. Live prices, even after hours. Futures quotes at all hours. Very easy to navigate. And best of all, you don't have to listen to any of them.
Like in this bit here. About 5 minutes in, Janet Tavakoli has the audaciity to suggest predatory lending played a part in the housing crisis or bubble or whatever you want to call it. Yes, some financial institutions fudged appraisals, made teaser loans they...
I make fun of all these "bottom" and "bottoming process" calls, but then it occurred to me. My book comes out in 6 month's or so and I'm going to have to plug my expertise like crazy. And what better way than to call a bottom accurately.
And what better way to call it accurately than to call it every day. Starting today.
So here it is.
We have hit my long standing target levels based on the Price to Danica Tattoo ratio.
Well, wrote that prior post last night to send out this morning. It looks like I beat the news by a half hour, but that's moot as the options were not open yet anyway. And it's double moot since that was all hypothetical.
Little secret: I don't write posts at 6AM, they're generally from the night before. Other little secret: It's way easier to just pick prices off the board and assume you can get simultaneous good fills on all of them.That's why it's easier to write up trades then actually...
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