As i noted a couple times recently, AAPL saw an unusually large spike in volatility ahead of the Number. Contrary (bullish) indicator? I guess not, given the stock poundage.
Here's my take. We're seeing several excessive volatility spikes in many high profile names, more so than usual. Its non-predictive of the earnings reaction in any one name, AAPL being Exhibit A, but overall its another sign of a major increase in fear. And for every Apple that disappoints, it sets the fear higher and the...CONTINUE READING...
Well, for the 7th day in a row we failed to hold a higher open in the S&P Futures. The Volatility Sisters didn't seem to mind, as they closed in the red. You just can't throw a good bear market......i mean correction any more.
All kidding aside, we do need evidence that it's really a breakdown and not just a testing of the lower bounds of our endless ranges, to get volatility really smoking. As i noted earlier, there are pockets of real volatility strength in individual names.
All kidding aside, we do need evidence that it's really a breakdown and not just a testing of the lower bounds of our endless ranges, to get volatility really smoking. As i noted earlier, there are pockets of real volatility strength in individual names.
John Succo on Minyanville points out some other factors that could keep GM volatile. Chief among them, a potential sale/spinoff of GMAC, and continued efforts from Captain Kirk to reduce employee compensation/benefits, etc.
Can't argue with the thought. My opinion though is you really need to buy volatility here on pullbacks (in the volatility, not the stock) as these are more one-time events with random timing. It may sound bizarre, but i would handle GM like a biotech in that i would expect...CONTINUE READING...
Can't argue with the thought. My opinion though is you really need to buy volatility here on pullbacks (in the volatility, not the stock) as these are more one-time events with random timing. It may sound bizarre, but i would handle GM like a biotech in that i would expect...CONTINUE READING...
Select options seeing interest, making upward implied volatility moves on volume today, with little corresponding action in the underlying stock, include: Calls: CTSH Nov 50 calls (volume: 1160, open int: 464, implied vol: ~40%, prev day implied vol: 34%), earnings 10/31; AEP Oct 40 calls (volume: 2610, open int: 434, implied vol: ~26%, prev day implied vol: 22%) seeing interest along with Nov 40 calls (volume: 1710, open int: 950, implied vol: ~19%, prev day implied vol: 16%), earnings...CONTINUE READING...
CAptain Kirk (shcokingly) chimes in to protect his GM stake. From Briefing.com
Volatility getting more human in GM, down to 50ish or so.
13:16 GM General Motors: Reuters reports that Kerkorian receives antitrust clearance to raise stake in GM (26.76 +1.28) -Update-
Volatility getting more human in GM, down to 50ish or so.
*The VIX/VXO/VXN are up nicely the last week, but to hold, we really need the volatility of stocks themselves to pick up. Implied volatility remains higher than historic volatility in most spots.
*Again, i'm not in any recommending that anyone look for naked put sale candidates, but i love how Wall Street encourages Covered Writing as a great strategy, while Naked Put selling is pure madness. ITS THE SAME THING!
*Bullish on the SMH? Helene thinks some stability in ADI could lead the way back (RM...CONTINUE READING...
*Again, i'm not in any recommending that anyone look for naked put sale candidates, but i love how Wall Street encourages Covered Writing as a great strategy, while Naked Put selling is pure madness. ITS THE SAME THING!
*Bullish on the SMH? Helene thinks some stability in ADI could lead the way back (RM...CONTINUE READING...
I have an article up on Tradingmarkets.com on the idea of Naked Put selling in this environment.
I can't emphasize enough that i'm making no judgement as to whether its a good time to naked sell puts. I would say however that i like the idea only AS AN ALTERNATIVE to either buying stock or buying LEAPS as a way to get long, given current volatility levels.
I can't emphasize enough that i'm making no judgement as to whether its a good time to naked sell puts. I would say however that i like the idea only AS AN ALTERNATIVE to either buying stock or buying LEAPS as a way to get long, given current volatility levels.
The S&P Futures have opened higher and closed below the open 6 days in a row. As per Jason Roney on Minyanville, this has only happened on one other occasion since their introduction in 1982, so its a pretty unique situation.
I mention sometimes that when volatility spikes, you want to own it. That's a generalization, not a hard and fast rule. Its a move that makes sense when a stock is in play and likely to remain on everyone's radar for the forseeable future. Its not a sensible idea when its just a one-shot deal that's caused the underlying stock to fly/sink, even though the volatility may have picked up.
So whither GM? Its a little of both. The Delphi-Dana Debacles may have some legs, that's for sure. Every house...CONTINUE READING...
So whither GM? Its a little of both. The Delphi-Dana Debacles may have some legs, that's for sure. Every house...CONTINUE READING...
*Spiky VXO; we're still a good 15% or so above the 10-Day SMA. Put/call closes on the high end as well.
*Key reversal in coal after an early ramp?
*Heard nary a peep about the XLNX implosion.
*Angels are slight faves to win tonight, but the Yankees are still ranked higher to win the WS?
*Another tradesports special. The Harriet Miers-makes-it-to-SCOTUS contract. Its trading in the 60's, which seems way high given that Antonin Scalia used his once-a-decade interview to not support her today on...CONTINUE READING...
*Key reversal in coal after an early ramp?
*Heard nary a peep about the XLNX implosion.
*Angels are slight faves to win tonight, but the Yankees are still ranked higher to win the WS?
*Another tradesports special. The Harriet Miers-makes-it-to-SCOTUS contract. Its trading in the 60's, which seems way high given that Antonin Scalia used his once-a-decade interview to not support her today on...CONTINUE READING...
No surprise here, but the Octs are trading at a mid 60's volatility, basically the high-water mark as far as the eye can see. Until Captain Kirk got involved, GM volatility traded in the mid-20's, so these are pretty heady levels.
I like buying volatility into spikes in general, but I DON'T like the play in GM for myriad reasons. This smells more like "one shot deal" than "now its in play". I'm sure Captain Kirk will have something to say, as in "I can't believe they're letting me buy even more...CONTINUE READING...
I like buying volatility into spikes in general, but I DON'T like the play in GM for myriad reasons. This smells more like "one shot deal" than "now its in play". I'm sure Captain Kirk will have something to say, as in "I can't believe they're letting me buy even more...CONTINUE READING...
Select options seeing interest, making upward implied volatility moves on volume today, with little corresponding action in the underlying stock, include: Calls: TMR Jan06 5 calls (volume: 2890, open int: 6820, implied vol: ~87%, prev day implied vol: 68%); ECA Apr 60 calls (volume: 11.4K, open int: 4.5K, implied vol: ~56%, prev day implied vol: 51%); HELE Oct 22.50 calls (volume: 490, open int: 270, implied vol: ~81%, prev day implied vol: 52%) seeing interest ahead of tomorrow morning's...CONTINUE READING...
So its the tale of two Steve Millers. One apparently is a joker, a toker and a midnight smoker. And the other headlined a huge 70's band.
Seriously, this Delphi bankrupcy filing is a joke. How can you say this on one hand.
Seriously, this Delphi bankrupcy filing is a joke. How can you say this on one hand.
"We took this action because we are determined to achieve competitiveness for Delphi's core U.S. operations, and the key to accomplishing that goal is reducing these costs as soon as possible," Delphi Chairman and CEO Robert S. "Steve" Miller said in a statement.CONTINUE READING...
"We simply...
Volatility's flying out of the gate in a beyond-shaky opening. John Roque has some thoughts on the VIX over on MV that i can't cut and paste over but i'll try to paraphrase. Bottom line: its uptrending, the MA's are upward sloping, and it held long-term support. He's looking for the VIX to "work higher, and investor agita to increase:.
When you're long volatility, you now have the power to fade anything. As stock's rally, your gamma gets you longer. As stocks' implode, it the the reverse. So last week should have been a treat if you net-owned volatility, particularly in the energy patch.
Well, funny story. A lot depends on how it gets there. On Wednesday, the oil gang churned around the unch. line through the inventory numbers, sold off a little, then sold off alot. Tough not to grab some as it went lower, then grab some more...CONTINUE READING...
Well, funny story. A lot depends on how it gets there. On Wednesday, the oil gang churned around the unch. line through the inventory numbers, sold off a little, then sold off alot. Tough not to grab some as it went lower, then grab some more...CONTINUE READING...
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