Daily Options Report

January's here, and as we all know, the move in the last 10 minutes of the year before predicts the move the first week of the new year. Which as we know is a perfect indicator of what will happen this year! So time to back up the option's truck!

Or not.

OK, first off, let's get the "January Rule" out of the way. I don't have the numbers handy, but this week contain's no great predictive value for the month, and in turn, the year. At least none more so than most other isolated 5 day periods. I mean if the market explodes the second week of March or the third week of August or whatever, it has the same predictive value as if we make a big move this week.

But that being said, it's not just any random time of year of course. We're coming off a very non-volatile stretch, the brief blip of action late Friday excluded. Decemeber is almost always a rough month for options, but now that it's in the rearview, maybe we will see some action.

Just looking at this FCX here and like many other spots, you have a real coiled spring. BBWidth sits near the lows, ATR sits at the lows. It does not pay to pre-anticipate a break as every day you own an option that's overpriced relative to realized volatility, you lose money. It does pay to keep some names on the radar though, like this one if it breaks thru either 85 or 75.