Daily Options Report

So that notion that Belichek has cleared the way for coaches to make better 4th down decisions? Apparently Andy Reid (shown) didn't get the memo.

About a month ago Eagles head coach Andy Reid was my hero of the week for his daring, and smart, onside kick to open the game against the Redskins. Although it failed and gave up 7 points, he got them back by going for it on 4th down inside field goal range, succeeding, and getting the touchdown.

This past week, however, Reid is again the goat. With 3 minutes left in a tie game against the Broncos, the Eagles faced a 4th and 1 from their own 49. The Eagles punted. This was a big mistake, and you don't even need fancy math or some win probability model to prove it. Worse, Reid made the exact same call a year ago in the infamous tie against the Bengals.

How bad was the decision?

The exact numbers are stark: Punts from a team's own 49 typically net 33 yards, putting the Broncos on their own 18. In that situation, with 4 minutes to go, a team has about a 72% chance of winning. (You could think of it as a 22% chance of scoring to win, plus a 50% chance in overtime.) Punting gives the Eagles an expected 0.28 WP (1-0.72).

Fourth and 1s in that region of the field are converted about 74% of the time. Consequently, going for it gives the Eagles a 0.59 WP. That's an error of 0.31, ranking as the worst 4th down decision so far this year, nearly twice as costly as the next worst. But to be honest, it may not be quite that big. Although technically it was 4th and 1, it was more like 4th and 1 and 1/2, so the conversion probability was a little lower than I gave it. Still, 4th and 2s are converted 60% of the time.

Now stats don't know the exact situation, they aggregate. The Eagles are not good on short yardage plays and the Bronco's offense is likely below league average. But there's such room here that can't quite make it up.

But alas, we have the whole perception of risk/reward in play here. Coaches rarely (really never) get criticized for doing what conventional wisdom says. "Punt and Trust Your Defense". Tony Dungy would praise Reid if the subject ever came up. Of course it will never come up because he did the norm, and more importantly, they won anyway. But it's the equivalent of staying in a Texas Hold Em hand that you trail badly, then pulling a great river card and winning anyway. The end result does not justify the way you got there. You'll go broke, and if Reid keeps doing this, he'll blow a game he should win, though fortunately he plays in Philly and the fan base there will likely let it slide.

The argument of why coaches go this path more often than not is that they personally are risk averse. Go conventional and lose and no one bats an eye, but take some risks and lose and you pay with your job. But Reid is perhaps the most secure coach in football right now, he just signed a 4 year extension. Which leads me to think he found this the best decision, which should scare Eagle fans.