Daily Options Report

BIDU, China's Only Search Engine That Matters, reports tonight.

BIDU's been quite interesting this cycle, though most of it was just a one-off reaction to the news that Google wanted no part of China any more.

If you include the move in BIDU historical volatility calculations, it's still a 50+ vol. If you take it out, BIDU looks more like a mid 40's volatility name. Febs carry a high 50's volatility into the number, though that's a little misleading in that small dollar moves in an option quote have an outsized effect on the volatility number as expiration gets closer.

All that being said, if BIDU options go to a mid 40's volatility after the number, it suggests a move in the 7-9% range is priced in for tonight.

As Steve Place noted on stocktwits, that's pretty much what every Big Tech name priced in this cycle. There are some crucial differences though. Volatility has ramped over the last few weeks, so anyone reporting early simply did it in a different world.  Plus BIDU has a history of some decent size earnings moves. So just thinking out loud that the expectation is far from thrombolic.

On the other hand, not sure a one-off number matters as much to them as the perception of how GOOG moves will effect them going forward.

I'm basically have an Iron Condor on, short OTM call spreads and OTM put spreads. It's not really an earnings play though, I've had it on for a while now. Starting from scratch, not sure I'd initiate an earnings play, but by same token I'm not itching to take it off either.